NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook for December 2026 through February 2027 favors warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern United States and wetter-than-average conditions across the southern tier and the East Coast, driven by a very strong El Niño that is shifting the jet stream south and east. Drought is expected to improve across much of the country — but forecasters warn the same pattern raises the risk of stormy weather, flash floods, and mudslides on drought-hardened ground.
What we know
- NOAA released its official U.S. Winter Outlook on October 15, 2026, covering December 2026 through February 2027.
- A very strong El Niño is the dominant driver: warm Pacific waters are pushing the jet stream southward and eastward over the contiguous United States.
- Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern tier — the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, much of the East, and Alaska.
- Wetter-than-average conditions are favored from California to Florida and along the Eastern Seaboard.
- Drought is forecast to improve or end across the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast, and parts of the East.
- The outlook does NOT predict seasonal snowfall totals for any city or region.
What we don’t know
- How much snow any particular city will get. A warmer-than-average winter can still produce major snowstorms, and NOAA’s seasonal outlook does not forecast snowfall amounts.
- Whether the El Niño will stay in the “very strong” range all winter. The Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of a very strong event at 90 percent for November–January and 70 percent for December–February — high, but not certain.
- How individual storms, cold snaps, or atmospheric patterns beyond El Niño will shape any given week. Seasonal outlooks tilt the odds; they do not determine individual weather events.
Key facts
- Outlook period: December 2026 through February 2027.
- Temperature signal: Warmer-than-average favored across the northern U.S., including the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, much of the East, and Alaska.
- Precipitation signal: Wetter-than-average favored from the Southwest through the southern tier and Southeast and northward along the East Coast.
- El Niño strength: Very strong, with the latest weekly Niño-3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly at +2.4°C (+4.3°F).
- Drought outlook: Improvement or removal expected for the majority of the country, including the East, Southern Great Plains, and Southwest.
- Snowfall caveat: NOAA’s outlook does not predict seasonal snowfall accumulations.
What NOAA actually forecast
NOAA’s outlook is a map of probabilities, not a promise. For temperature, the greatest chances of warmer-than-average conditions stretch across the northern tier of the country, from the Pacific Northwest through the northern Rockies and Midwest, across the Mississippi Valley, and through much of the East, plus Alaska and Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Near-normal temperatures are most likely across parts of the Southeast, including Florida, while Hawaii and much of the Southwest face equal chances of below-, near-, or above-average seasonal temperatures.
For precipitation, the wet signal is strongest in the South. Wetter-than-average conditions are favored from the Southwest through the southern tier and Southeast and northward along the East Coast, with the Climate Prediction Center placing probabilities for above-normal precipitation above 70 percent in some areas of the extreme Southeast and northern Florida through the January–March 2027 season. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast for parts of the northern Rockies and Great Lakes and central Alaska.
Drought is the third piece of the outlook, and it is broadly good news: drought is forecast to improve or end across the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast, and parts of the East Coast. For regions that have spent months dry, a wetter winter could refill reservoirs and ease water restrictions — but the transition itself carries risk.
Why El Niño is driving this winter
El Niño occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific run warmer than usual, reshaping atmospheric circulation worldwide. The current event is not a marginal one. The Climate Prediction Center reported a weekly Niño-3.4 anomaly of +2.4°C, and forecasters have given the developing event a substantial chance of ranking among the strongest since records began in 1950.
The mechanism matters for the forecast. As NOAA’s National Weather Service director Ken Graham put it, decades of observations show that a very strong El Niño will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous United States, tilting the odds toward stormier weather across the South. That southward-shifted jet stream acts like a storm highway: it steers Pacific moisture and storm systems across the southern tier, which is why the wet signal is strongest there, while the northern tier sits under warmer air more often.
El Niño is not the only influence on winter weather. Other atmospheric patterns, and the long-term warming trend — winter is the fastest-warming season for most of the United States — also shape the season. That is one reason the effects of El Niño vary from one event to another and from one region to the next, and why forecasters stress probabilities rather than certainties.
What it means region by region
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored, but that does not rule out winter weather. For the Washington, D.C. area, NOAA’s outlook points to a 40 to 50 percent chance of above-normal temperatures and roughly a 50 percent chance of above-normal precipitation. That combination could mean a winter with more precipitation but fewer consistently cold stretches — and, paradoxically, it does not rule out a significant snowstorm, since a single well-timed storm with cold air in place can still deliver heavy snow. Some early snow outlooks have suggested the D.C. and Baltimore areas could still see above-average snow if nor’easters tap into the juiced southern storm track, but those are not part of NOAA’s official seasonal outlook and should be treated as speculative.
The South and Gulf Coast: This is where the outlook is most confident — wetter than average, with the highest precipitation probabilities in the Southeast. The stormier southern jet stream raises the odds of repeated rain events, and with them, flooding in low-lying and coastal areas.
The West: Northern California and the Pacific Northwest lean warm, while the Southwest leans wet, with drought improvement expected. California’s winter rain and mountain snow will still depend on the timing of individual atmospheric river events, which a seasonal outlook cannot resolve.
The Midwest and Plains: Warmer than average is favored, with drought improvement in the Southern Great Plains. The northern Plains and Great Lakes lean drier than average in the precipitation outlook.
Alaska and Hawaii: Warmer-than-average conditions are favored in Alaska. Hawaii faces equal chances of below-, near-, or above-average seasonal temperatures.
The snowfall question everyone asks
The most common misunderstanding of a seasonal outlook is treating it as a snow forecast. It is not. NOAA’s winter outlook explicitly does not predict seasonal snowfall accumulations. A warmer-than-average winter can still include brief periods of frigid weather and the right combinations for a significant snowstorm, and forecasters have stressed exactly that for the Mid-Atlantic.
The reason is scale. Seasonal outlooks describe the average over three months. A single storm lasting two days can dump a foot of snow in a city whose winter still ends up warmer than average overall. For snowfall, the outlooks that matter are the weekly and daily forecasts as winter unfolds — and for coastal areas, the same storm track that brings rain can bring coastal flooding, as the king tides flood warning for Southern California has already shown this autumn.
The flash-flood warning hiding inside the good news
Graham’s statement carried a specific warning that deserves attention: while higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. Dry, hardened ground absorbs water poorly, so heavy rain runs off fast, overwhelming drains and small streams.
That risk is not theoretical for the South and Southwest, where drought has been most severe. Residents in flood-prone areas should treat the winter outlook as a prompt to check drainage around their homes, review flood insurance, and pay attention to local flood watches during storm events — see our guide on how to protect your home from storm flooding.
What to do now
For most households, the practical steps are unglamorous but useful: clear gutters and storm drains before the wet season, know whether your home sits in a flood-prone area, and keep an eye on local forecasts rather than seasonal headlines once winter begins. Travelers should expect the southern storm track to produce more weather-related delays across the South and East Coast than in a typical winter, while northern-tier travelers may see fewer extreme cold disruptions but should not assume snow-free roads.
Energy watchers will note that a warmer North typically trims heating demand in the most populous northern states, while a wetter South can complicate construction and agriculture schedules. Those are tendencies, not guarantees, and monthly outlook updates will refine them as winter approaches.
What happens next
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates its seasonal outlooks monthly, so the December–February picture will be refreshed as El Niño evolves and as autumn observations come in. The next update will show whether the very strong El Niño signal is holding or fading, and whether the precipitation probabilities for the Southeast and East Coast are strengthening or easing. The first real test of the outlook will come with the season’s first major southern storm system — and with how much cold air is available when it arrives, as the San Juan River flooding in the Four Corners showed when water arrived faster than the land could absorb it.
Sources: NOAA, “El Niño looms large over U.S. Winter Outlook” (October 15, 2026), noaa.gov; NOAA Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlooks, December 2026–February 2027. Secondary reporting: USA Today (October 23, 2026); The Watchers (October 16, 2026); CNN El Niño winter forecast analysis.
